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Substantial progress has been made in reducing the burden of malaria in Africa since 2000, but those gains could be jeopardised if the COVID-19 pandemic affects the availability of key malaria control interventions. The aim of this study was to evaluate plausible effects on malaria incidence and mortality under different levels of disruption to malaria control.
Asymptomatic or subclinical SARS-CoV-2 infections are often unreported, which means that confirmed case counts may not accurately reflect underlying epidemic dynamics. Understanding the level of ascertainment (the ratio of confirmed symptomatic cases to the true number of symptomatic individuals) and undetected epidemic progression is crucial to informing COVID-19 response planning, including the introduction and relaxation of control measures.
As of 1 May 2020, there had been 6808 confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Australia. Of these, 98 had died from the disease. The epidemic had been in decline since mid-March, with 308 cases confirmed nationally since 14 April.
Adam Punam Susan Saddler Amratia Rumisha PhD PhD PhD (Biostatistics) Senior Research Officer Honorary Research Associate Honorary Research Associate
Punam Susan Tasmin Amratia Rumisha Symons PhD PhD (Biostatistics) Honorary Research Associate Honorary Research Associate Honorary Research Associate
Punam Susan Tasmin Amratia Rumisha Symons PhD PhD (Biostatistics) Honorary Research Associate Honorary Research Associate Honorary Research Associate
Researchers have developed a new model for simulating covid-19 outbreaks in Western Australia.
Bhutan has achieved a substantial reduction in both malaria morbidity and mortality over the last two decades and is aiming for malaria elimination certification in 2025. However, a significant percentage of malaria cases in Bhutan are imported (acquired in another country). The aim of the study was to understand how importation drives local malaria transmission in Bhutan.
Monitoring how the incidence of influenza infections changes over time is important for quantifying the transmission dynamics and clinical severity of influenza. Infection incidence is difficult to measure directly, and hence, other quantities which are more amenable to surveillance are used to monitor trends in infection levels, with the implicit assumption that they correlate with infection incidence.
Testing and treating symptomatic malaria cases is crucial for case management, but it may also prevent future illness by reducing mean infection duration. Measuring the impact of effective treatment on burden and transmission via field studies or routine surveillance systems is difficult and potentially unethical. This project uses mathematical modeling to explore how increasing treatment of symptomatic cases impacts malaria prevalence and incidence.