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Seasonal malaria chemoprevention and the spread of Plasmodium falciparum quintuple-mutant parasites resistant to sulfadoxine–pyrimethamine: a modelling study

Seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine prevents millions of clinical malaria cases in children younger than 5 years in Africa's Sahel region. However, Plasmodium falciparum parasites partially resistant to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (with quintuple mutations) potentially threaten the protective effectiveness of SMC. We evaluated the spread of quintuple-mutant parasites and the clinical consequences. 

Rethinking a hybrid malaria chemoprevention delivery strategy for children in sub-perennial settings: a modelling study integrating age- and seasonally-targeted delivery

The World Health Organization recommends perennial malaria chemoprevention (PMC), generally using sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) to children at high risk of severe Plasmodium falciparum malaria. Currently, PMC is given up to age two in perennial transmission settings. However, no recommendation exists for perennial settings with seasonal variation in transmission intensity, recently categorized as 'sub-perennial'.

Estimating the potential malaria morbidity and mortality avertable by the US President's Malaria Initiative in 2025: a geospatial modelling analysis

Since its inception in 2005, the US President's Malaria Initiative (PMI) has played a major role in the reductions in malaria morbidity and mortality observed across Africa. With the status of PMI funding and operations currently uncertain, we aimed to quantify the impact that a fully functioning PMI would have on malaria cases and deaths in Africa during 2025. 

Value profile for Malaria vaccines and monoclonal antibodies1

Malaria remains a leading cause of morbidity and mortality and is responsible for over 0.5 million annual deaths globally. During the first two decades of this century, scale-up of a range of tools was associated with significant reductions in malaria mortality in the primary risk group, young African children.

Global Disease Modelling

The Global Disease Modelling group informs development and implementation of drugs, medical treatments and non-medical interventions to effectively tackle disease. They build mathematical models of diseases, designed to take into account the complex constellation of interactions between pathogens, humans, diseases, the environment and entire healthcare systems.

Julian Heng

Julian is the Program Manager for the Global Disease Modelling team at The Kids Research Institute Australia.

Epke Annelie Le Rutte

Epke is a veterinarian that specializes in infectious disease control, and holds a PhD in human neglected tropical disease (NTD) control and elimination.

Mapping the global prevalence, incidence, and mortality of Plasmodium falciparum and Plasmodium vivax malaria, 2000-22: a spatial and temporal modelling study

Malaria remains a leading cause of illness and death globally, with countries in sub-Saharan Africa bearing a disproportionate burden. Global high-resolution maps of malaria prevalence, incidence, and mortality are crucial for tracking spatially heterogeneous progress against the disease and to inform strategic malaria control efforts. We present the latest such maps, the first since 2019, which cover the years 2000–22. The maps are accompanied by administrative-level summaries and include estimated COVID-19 pandemic-related impacts on malaria burden. 

Design and selection of drug properties to increase the public health impact of next-generation seasonal malaria chemoprevention: a modelling study

Seasonal malaria chemoprevention (SMC) is recommended for disease control in settings with moderate to high Plasmodium falciparum transmission and currently depends on the administration of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine plus amodiaquine. 

Public health impact of current and proposed age-expanded perennial malaria chemoprevention: a modelling study

In 2022, the World Health Organization extended their guidelines for perennial malaria chemoprevention (PMC) from infants to children up to 24 months old. However, evidence for PMC's public health impact is primarily limited to children under 15 months. Further research is needed to assess the public health impact and cost-effectiveness of PMC, and the added benefit of further age-expansion. We integrated an individual-based model of malaria with pharmacological models of drug action to address these questions for PMC and a proposed age-expanded schedule (referred as PMC+, for children 03-36 months).