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Cases identified through mass testing represent only a fraction of infections, depending on the propensity of infected individuals to seek testing. Quantifying the variation in test-seeking behaviour through time or between population subgroups provides important information on testing uptake and supports epidemiological analyses of case data that may otherwise be biased.
Quantifying the extent to which previous infections and vaccinations confer protection against future infection or disease outcomes is critical to managing the transmission and consequences of infectious diseases. We present a general statistical model for predicting the strength of protection conferred by different immunising exposures (numbers, types, and strains of both vaccines and infections), against multiple outcomes of interest, whilst accounting for immune waning.
Mild stroke affects more than half the stroke population, yet there is limited evidence characterizing cognition over time in this population, especially with predictive approaches applicable at the individual-level. We aimed to identify patterns of recovery and the best combination of demographic, clinical, and lifestyle factors predicting individual-level cognitive state at 3- and 12-months after mild stroke.
The availability of COVID-19 vaccines promised a reduction in the severity of disease and relief from the strict public health and social measures (PHSMs) imposed in many countries to limit spread and burden of COVID-19. We were asked to define vaccine coverage thresholds for Australia's transition to easing restrictions and reopening international borders.
Following widespread exposure to Omicron variants, SARS-CoV-2 has transitioned to endemic circulation. Populations now have diverse infection and vaccination histories, resulting in heterogeneous immune landscapes. Careful consideration of the value of ongoing vaccination is required through the post-Omicron phase of COVID-19 management to minimise disease burden.
Japanese Encephalitis virus is a mosquito-borne virus that is typically only found in south-east Asia.
The ACEFA NHMRC Centre of Research Excellence aims to support the timely, effective response to epidemic diseases in Australia through real-time data analytics, modelling, and forecasting.
Contact tracing is an important public health measure used to reduce transmission of infectious diseases. Contact tracers typically conduct telephone interviews with cases to identify contacts and direct them to quarantine, with the aim of preventing onward transmission. However, in situations where caseloads exceed the capacity of the public health system, timely interviews may not be feasible for all cases. Here we present a modelling framework for assessing the impact of different case interview prioritisation strategies on disease transmission.
Australian states and territories used test-trace-isolate-quarantine (TTIQ) systems extensively in their response to the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020-2021. We report on an analysis of Australian case data to estimate the impact of test-trace-isolate-quarantine systems on SARS-CoV-2 transmission.
Children are more vulnerable than adults to climate-related health threats, but reviews examining how climate change affects human health have been mainly descriptive and lack an assessment of the magnitude of health effects children face. This is the first systematic review and meta-analysis that identifies which climate-health relationships pose the greatest threats to children.