A Pragmatic Bayesian Adaptive Trial Design Based on the Value of Information: The Value-Driven Adaptive Design

Clinical trial designs are typically narrowly focused on error control in hypothesis testing, but this approach is inadequate in many contexts, particularly when a decision maker intends to, or must, consider multiple relevant clinical and health economic outcomes under uncertainty. Value-of-information (VoI) metrics can be used to estimate the monetary value of data collection to the decision maker.

Citation:
Dymock M, Marsh JA, Jones M, Heath A, et al. A Pragmatic Bayesian Adaptive Trial Design Based on the Value of Information: The Value-Driven Adaptive Design. Med Decis Mak. 2026.

Keywords:
Adaptive trial design; bayesian; decision rules; value of information

Abstract:
Clinical trial designs are typically narrowly focused on error control in hypothesis testing, but this approach is inadequate in many contexts, particularly when a decision maker intends to, or must, consider multiple relevant clinical and health economic outcomes under uncertainty. Value-of-information (VoI) metrics can be used to estimate the monetary value of data collection to the decision maker.