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Predicting immune protection against outcomes of infectious disease from population-level effectiveness data with application to COVID-19

Quantifying the extent to which previous infections and vaccinations confer protection against future infection or disease outcomes is critical to managing the transmission and consequences of infectious diseases. We present a general statistical model for predicting the strength of protection conferred by different immunising exposures (numbers, types, and strains of both vaccines and infections), against multiple outcomes of interest, whilst accounting for immune waning. 

Citation:
Hao T, Ryan GE, Lydeamore MJ, Cromer D, ……. Golding N. Predicting immune protection against outcomes of infectious disease from population-level effectiveness data with application to COVID-19. Vaccine. 2025;55.

Keywords:
Correlates of protection; Emerging pathogen; Immune evasion; Observational data; SARS-CoV-2; Vaccine effectiveness; Vaccine efficacy

Abstract:
Quantifying the extent to which previous infections and vaccinations confer protection against future infection or disease outcomes is critical to managing the transmission and consequences of infectious diseases. We present a general statistical model for predicting the strength of protection conferred by different immunising exposures (numbers, types, and strains of both vaccines and infections), against multiple outcomes of interest, whilst accounting for immune waning.