Emulator-based Bayesian optimization for efficient multi-objective calibration of an individual-based model of malaria

Individual-based models have become important tools in the global battle against infectious diseases, yet model complexity can make calibration to biological and epidemiological data challenging. We propose using a Bayesian optimization framework employing Gaussian process or machine learning emulator functions to calibrate a complex malaria transmission simulator.

Citation:
Reiker T, Golumbeanu M, Shattock A, …… Cameron E, Penny MA et al. Emulator-based Bayesian optimization for efficient multi-objective calibration of an individual-based model of malaria. Nat Commun. 2021;12(1).

Keywords:
Bayesian analysis; calibration; epidemiology; machine learning; malaria; optimization

Abstract:
Individual-based models have become important tools in the global battle against infectious diseases, yet model complexity can make calibration to biological and epidemiological data challenging. We propose using a Bayesian optimization framework employing Gaussian process or machine learning emulator functions to calibrate a complex malaria transmission simulator.