Authors:
Hogan AB, Mercer GN, Glass K, Moore HC
Authors notes:
MODSIM2013, 20th International Congress on Modelling and Simulation; 2013
Keywords:
Mathematical model, infectious disease, respiratory syncytial virus, seasonality
Abstract:
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a major cause of acute lower respiratory tract infections in infants and young children.
The transmission dynamics of RSV infection among young children are still poorly understood and mathematical modelling can be used to better understand the seasonal behaviour of the virus.
However, few mathematical models for RSV have been published to date and these are relatively simple, in contrast to studies of other infectious diseases such as measles and influenza.
A simple SEIRS (Susceptible, Exposed, Infectious, Recovered, Susceptible) type deterministic ordinary differential equation model for RSV is constructed and then expanded to capture two separate age classes with different transmission parameters, to reflect the age specific dynamics known to exist for RSV.
Parameters in the models are based on the available literature. In temperate climates, RSV dynamics are highly seasonal with mid-winter peaks and very low levels of activity during summer months.
Often there is an observed biennial seasonal pattern in southern Australia with alternating peak sizes in winter months.
To model this seasonality the transmission parameter is taken to vary sinusoidally with higher transmission during winter months.