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Opinion: Modelling for the health of our next generation

Nearly 170 years ago a British doctor applied geospatial mapping to identify the source of a cholera outbreak in central London. Using a street map to plot the location of the homes of the sick, Dr John Snow was able to pinpoint a ‘ground zero’ for the outbreak – a contaminated water pump.

Nearly 170 years ago a British doctor applied geospatial mapping to identify the source of a cholera outbreak in central London. Using a street map to plot the location of the homes of the sick, Dr John Snow was able to pinpoint a ‘ground zero’ for the outbreak – a contaminated water pump.

The handle for the pump was removed and the epidemic stopped.

Today, we have at our fingertips immense data sources that enable us to apply the same method to address serious public health concerns in Western Australia and, indeed, across the world.  

In WA, of our 620,000 children and young people, one in ten have asthma, three in ten are considered obese, 2,600 have type 1 diabetes and 20 per cent have a developmental delay when they start school. We also know suicide is the leading cause of death in children, and in the past decade self-harm hospitalisation of young girls aged 14 years and younger has trebled. For girls aged between 15 and 19 years it has doubled.  

Imagine if we can use geospatial mapping to understand exactly where these serious public health issues are concentrated and use research, policy and practice to stem the tide of poor health in the most vulnerable members of our community. 
Work being undertaken at The Kids Research Institute Australia is trying to achieve just that.  

We have built Virtual WA  -  a digital replica of our State. Using neighbourhood spatial modelling with data including population characteristics, demographics, connections to public transport, schools, GP clinics, hospitals and workplaces, we have built a comprehensive map of our community.

We then use Virtual WA to ask real-world questions:  where do children with asthma live and what is the role of air quality? Do areas with high suicide rates have easy access to mental health services? Can kids more easily walk to school and would this help combat rising child obesity? The information will help to inform policy and research to address these challenges to the health of our kids.

Much of the work we’re now doing in WA builds on the game-changing research my group has developed over the past 18 years that focused on one of the world’s deadliest diseases: malaria. We have used geospatial modelling to map the prevalence of malaria in some of the world’s poorest countries, and developed the world’s largest database of malaria prevalence, incidence, mortality and interventions across Africa. By building a huge  toolbox of new analytical approaches, we’ve been successful in bringing these complex data together and answering the questions that policy makers needed to answer.

We’ve engaged with those making the important decisions, helped determine public health activities and then tracked the outcome of their policy decisions based on our research. We know from our work that a simple action like enabling the use of bed nets at night, has had enormous impact on the incidence of malaria in many parts of Africa.

The power of where and how geographical analysis can offer transformative insights for child health is significant.  

Globally, we are in the midst of a data revolution  - with the volume and complexity of data being generated growing exponentially – and data on population health and wellbeing is no exception. By viewing these data through a geographical lense – and harnessing the power of asking ‘where?’ - we have an unprecedented opportunity to use data and analytics to deliver the insights we need for improved policy and practice - to ensure a bright future for happy, healthy kids. 


Professor Peter Gething
Kerry M Stokes Chair in Child Health, The Kids Research Institute Australia
John Curtin Distinguished Professor, Curtin University